Brandon Leon

Summary note · Nvidia (NVDA) · Hold · Price target about $173 for February 2028

Nvidia Lost Its Founder and $1.2 Trillion While Its Earnings Estimate Moved About a Cent

The summary of my November 12 coverage update: what happened, what changed in the numbers, and what would move the rating.

Posted November 13, 2026Author Brandon LeonData as of Thursday, November 12 closeRead 9 min

The call

Hold, with a probability-weighted price target of about $173 for February 2028, 4% above the $166.19 close, or about 4.9% including the $1.25 of dividends due before then, about 3.9% a year and below my 11% hurdle; Hold rests on the price sitting midway between that target’s value today and my cash-flow value. From the October 28 close to November 12 the shares lost about $1.2 trillion of market value, while Yahoo Finance’s fiscal 2028 consensus went from $15.915 on October 26 to $15.927 on November 12. The debate is succession, export policy and retention; published estimates show no demand downgrade.[1][4]

Full report The November 12 report has the 42-case study, the valuation appendix and every source.

The Numbers at a Glance

Price$166.19 on November 12, down 4.3% on the day and 31% below the October 6 record of $239.24
Market valueAbout $4.01 trillion on 24.1 billion shares (the August 21 count), about $1.2 trillion below the October 28 close of $215.38
Fiscal 2028 consensusYahoo Finance adjusted series, year to January 2028, 52 analysts: $15.927 a share and $692B of revenue on November 12; $15.915 on October 26. Providers differ
Multiple10.4 times fiscal 2028 earnings, against about 19 for Broadcom and 17 for TSMC on their own 2027-year consensus, a 42% discount to their simple average of 18
Supply commitments$279B, up from $119B a quarter earlier, with $92B due in the rest of fiscal 2027[5]
Founder’s stake811.5 million shares outside the family foundation (Form 4, September 18), 3.4% of the company, about $135 billion
Next testResults on Tuesday, November 17, against consensus of $109.04B and $2.48 a share
RatingHold while the price stays between $164.76 and $192.22 (section 9)

1. Two Weeks From the First Report to the Resignation

DateEventStatus
Oct 29The New York Times reports Mr. Huang’s relationship with a former executive of Megaspeed, a Singapore customer under export investigation, and a US intelligence assessment that she works for China’s Ministry of State Security; China calls it a smear[6]Alleged
Nov 8Mr. Huang tells staff he was unfaithful; the board opens an independent investigation[2]Admitted
Nov 9–10A securities class action is filed; the independent directors retain Joon Kim and Wachtell Lipton. Shares fall 4.3% and 5.5%[2][7]Confirmed
Nov 11, 5 PMThe Times reports a second relationship, with a vice president who reported to him[20]Alleged
Nov 11, eveningThe board accepts his resignation, names Ms. Kress interim chief executive and Mr. Jones Chair[1]Confirmed
Nov 12Nvidia announces the change before the open; Ms. Kress stays finance chief, Mr. Jones is the first Chair, and a search opens to insiders and outsiders. The company gives no reason. The shares open 13.1% lower and close 4.34% lower at $166.19[1]Confirmed
Nov 12, 2:27 PMReuters reports a further relationship with an employee; no party has confirmed it[8]Alleged

No cited outlet reports a criminal allegation against Mr. Huang; Bloomberg reports he is not a target of the New York inquiry.[14]

Chart 1 — Nvidia against the semiconductor fund

Nvidia finished at 69 against the fund’s 79; the break came in the week of the admission.

Indexed to 100 at Nvidia's record close, October 6, 2026 60 70 80 90 100 Oct 6 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Nov 2 Nov 9 Oct 29: first Times report Nov 8: admission and inquiry Nov 12: resignation 69 79 Nvidia SMH semiconductor fund Dated events

Daily closes indexed to 100 on October 6, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

2. A Finance Chief and a Thirty-Three-Year Director Now Decide

  • Colette Kress, 59: interim chief executive since November 11 and finance chief since September 2013; every role in her filed biography is in finance.[3][15]
  • Harvey Jones, 73: Chair, and a director since 1993. Four of the ten directors remaining after his resignation, a count that includes Suzanne Nora Johnson, who joined on July 13, joined between 1993 and 1997; Semafor puts average tenure at almost fifteen years.[3][9][19]
  • The bench: long-tenured engineers (Ian Buck, Bill Dally, Jonah Alben); no disclosed insider has run the whole company.

3. Published Estimates Barely Changed While the Multiple Compressed

  • Guidance: $108.0B, plus or minus 2%, for the October quarter with no data-center compute sold into China; Ms. Kress guided to about 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, limited by supply.[5][23]
  • Supply: TSMC says demand is far above what it can supply, and SK hynix, Samsung and Micron have sold their 2027 high-bandwidth memory.[5][21]
  • Buyers: the four largest spent $208.8B on capital expenditure in the third quarter; I found no announced order change as of November 12.[22]
  • Against: three of those four ran negative free cash flow; guided gross margin troughs at 71% to 72% in January; receivables reached 60 days from 45.[5][22]

Chart 2 — The estimate rose and the multiple fell

The data provider’s forward multiple fell from 23 times in July to 13.7 while the fiscal 2028 estimate rose 22% from late August.

Forward price-to-earnings multiple (bars) and the fiscal 2028 EPS consensus (line) 0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 39.8x Jul 2025 31.5x Oct 2025 24.9x Jan 2026 24.6x Apr 2026 22.9x Jul 2026 19.3x Aug 2026 13.7x Nov 2026 $13.03 $15.93 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 Forward P/E (left) Today FY2028 EPS consensus (right)

Bars: StockAnalysis’s own forward multiple, for direction only. Line: Yahoo’s fiscal 2028 consensus, the basis of the 10.4 times.

Chart 3 — Rivals rallied as Nvidia fell

From November 6 Nvidia fell 11% while AMD rose 30% and Broadcom 24%.

Price change, November 6 close to November 12 close (%) -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 −11.0% Nvidia +8.1% SMH fund +8.0% TSMC +24.1% Broadcom +30.3% AMD

From the November 6 close. Source: Yahoo Finance.

4. Washington Is the Larger Variable

  • Inquiries: three Justice Department inquiries reportedly touch Nvidia, one an antitrust inquiry into the company, with no indication of charges.[9]
  • Legislation: the AI Overwatch Act has 56 co-sponsors in the Senate defense package; a Commerce licensing rule for Blackwell-class sales in seven more countries is reported close.[16]
  • Exposure: China and Hong Kong customers were 8.2% of July-quarter revenue; guidance already assumes no China data-center compute.[5]
  • My estimate: a 5% cut to fiscal 2028 earnings if Washington acts, because in a supply-limited year a closed channel moves units to another buyer.

5. His Stake Alone Gives No Clear Route Back

  • The rules: no written consent (charter Art. V.B.3); a special meeting needs 15% held a year (bylaws §6(a)), blocked from March 26 to the meeting (§6(d)(iii)); removal without cause needs two thirds of all shares (charter Art. V.A.3); nominations close March 26, before a meeting about June 24.[3]
  • The votes: on June’s 69.6% turnout, with the four largest index managers (23.3%) backing the board, his 3.4% would need about 73% of all other votes cast.[17][18]
  • My probability that he is chief executive again within twelve months: about 5%.
  • Competing: I have found no disclosed agreement that restricts him; California generally voids employee non-competes, but confidentiality and trade-secret duties still apply.[11]
  • Selling: as I read Rules 16a-2(b) and 144, his trades stay reportable only within six months of an opposite in-office trade, affiliate resale limits can lapse three months after he left, and a holder below 5% files no ownership schedule, so visibility into his $135 billion stake may diminish from February. My reading, not legal advice.[12]

Chart 4 — The founder’s stake against an illustrative majority

Half of June’s votes cast was about 35% of the shares; Mr. Huang holds 3.4%.

Percent of Nvidia shares outstanding 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Illustrative majority of votes cast (2026 turnout) 34.8% BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Geode 23.3% Jensen Huang, excluding the foundation 3.4% Other directors and officers 0.4%

Percent of shares outstanding at each holder’s latest filing.

6. Past CEO Exits Varied Widely, and the Successor Was One Factor

  • Fourteen conduct exits, 2005 to 2025, twelve with a full year of prices: twelve months on, the median stock was 0.6 points behind the market; the middle half (interquartile range) ran from 31.1 behind to 20.6 ahead, 52 points wide; median first day −2.6%.
  • Twenty-eight planned, age, health or death exits, 1997 to 2025: median 2.5 points behind; middle half from 11.2 behind to 17.5 ahead, 29 points wide; median first day +0.6%.
  • Who got the job: an insider in 10 of 14 conduct exits and 24 of 28 planned ones.
  • Illustration, not proof: a credible successor named the same day (McDonald’s, Texas Instruments) finished within five points of the market; an interim finance chief made permanent (Intel, BP) trailed by 18 and 40 points.

Chart 5 — Twelve months after the exit

The middle result is near the market either way; the middle half of conduct exits is nearly twice as wide.

Twelve-month total return less the S&P 500 or Swiss index, percentage points −50 −25 0 +25 +50 +75 +100 Conduct exits 12 of 14 with prices BP −40.1 Kohl's +88.2 median −0.6 Planned, age, health 28 cases Microsoft −42.4 Berkshire −41.0 Apple +54.7 median −2.5 Permanent successor from inside Hired from outside Middle half of outcomes

Twelve-month total return less the S&P 500 (Swiss index for Nestlé). Every case is in Appendix A of the full note.

7. Three Cases Put the Target at About $173

Each outcome applies an earnings adjustment, carrying all its modeled effects, and a multiple range to the $15.93 fiscal 2028 consensus. Outcomes are assigned in order: a finding against the company; otherwise a failed search or two senior engineering departures; otherwise the founder’s return; otherwise an export cut to earnings of 2.5% or more; otherwise the orderly handover.

Case and outcomeWeightFY2028 EPSMultipleRangeMidpoint
Bull case33%$191–231$208
  Orderly handover28%$15.9312–14×$191–223$207
  The founder returns5%$15.9312.5–14.5×$199–231$215
Base case35%$159–189$174
  Handover with a Washington cost35%$15.13 (−5%)10.5–12.5×$159–189$174
Bear case32%$108–158$135
  The bench frays20%$14.34 (−10%)9–11×$129–158$143
  A finding against the company12%$13.54 (−15%)8–10×$108–135$122
Probability-weighted value = 0.33 × $208 + 0.35 × $174 + 0.32 × $135$173

Chart 6 — The price sits at the bottom of the base case

At $166.19 the shares sit below the whole bull case.

Value per share by outcome ($), twelve to eighteen months $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 Orderly handover Bull · 28% · $191–223 $207 The founder returns Bull · 5% · $199–231 $215 Handover with a Washington cost Base · 35% · $159–189 $174 The bench frays Bear · 20% · $129–158 $143 A finding against the company Bear · 12% · $108–135 $122 Price $166.19 Weighted value $173

Value range for each outcome. Source: my estimates.

  • Sensitivity: moving 10 points of probability from the orderly handover to the two bear outcomes, split equally, gives $165.5; moving 10 points the other way gives $180.4. A turn of the multiple is worth about $16 a share at consensus earnings, less where earnings are lower.
  • Two methods bracket the price: discounted back at 11% with its dividends, the $173 February 2028 target is worth about $153 today, while a ten-year discounted cash flow gives $179 ($207 at 10%, $158 at 12%). The $166.19 price sits almost exactly midway, which is the case for Hold: the target alone returns about 3.9% a year, below my 11% hurdle, and the cash flows alone point higher.
  • The Street: the five downgrade targets I can source, dated November 10 to 12, run from $180 to $200; Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy at $220 and Citi cut to $225 on November 12. Yahoo’s higher average includes older targets.[10][13]

8. Seven Forecasts and One Conditional Test

#EventProbabilityBy
1The permanent chief executive is an insider from outside finance60%Nov 12, 2027
2A permanent chief executive is named50%Mar 26, 2027
3No proxy contest or Schedule 13D by Mr. Huang95%Mar 26, 2027
4Repurchases of $35B or more in the January 2027 quarter55%Q4 report
5aThe AI Overwatch export provisions become law60%Jan 31, 2027
5bConditional on 5a: fiscal 2028 consensus at or above $15.13 thirty days later70%30 days after
6No close above $215 before a permanent chief executive is named70%Nov 12, 2027
7Mr. Huang publicly leads a new company or fund45%Nov 12, 2027

Condensed; the scored wording is Exhibit 7 of the full note.

Forecast 2 and the bear weight share one record: of the eight conduct-exit searches in my study, four ended within four and a half months (March 26) and one or two ran past seven and a half (June), a 12% to 25% chance that sits inside the 32% bear case.

9. What Would Change the Rating

  • January guide on November 17 below $120B of revenue or 71% gross margin: the cases are re-run within one trading day.
  • Estimates: fiscal 2028 consensus below $14.34 within thirty days of a report: the bear earnings assumption is met.
  • Bear events: two or more of Mr. Buck, Mr. Dally, Mr. Alben and Mr. Kagan leaving within twelve months; a criminal charge, or a settlement or monitor restricting operations or costing over $5B; or no permanent chief executive by the annual meeting.
  • Price: a close below $129 makes a re-underwrite mandatory.
  • Upside: an operating chief executive by the end of March, a clean investigation or $40B-a-quarter repurchases would move the target toward $190 to $205.
  • The band: Hold while the target is between 10% below and 5% above the price, a price of $164.76 to $192.22; the close is 0.9% above the lower line. After the November 17 report, a target more than 5% above the close raises the rating and one more than 10% below it lowers it, in a dated update.
Want more? Read the full report.

Sources

  1. NVIDIA release and Form 8-K, November 12, 2026. Release · 8-K
  2. NVIDIA board statements, November 8 and 10. November 8 · November 10
  3. NVIDIA proxy, bylaws, charter. Proxy · Bylaws · Charter
  4. Yahoo Finance estimates, archived October 26 and November 12 pulls. NVDA
  5. NVIDIA July-quarter 10-Q; TSMC third-quarter call. 10-Q · TSMC
  6. TechCrunch timeline, November 12. TechCrunch
  7. BNN Bloomberg on Kistenmacher v. NVIDIA, November 10. BNN Bloomberg
  8. Reuters, November 12. Reuters
  9. Semafor, November 9 and 12. Board · Inquiries
  10. CNBC analyst round-up, November 12. CNBC
  11. California Bus. & Prof. Code §16600. Code
  12. Rule 16a-2(b); Rule 144. Rule 16a-2 · Rule 144
  13. Investing.com on Goldman Sachs, November 12. Investing.com
  14. Bloomberg, November 10 and 12. November 10 · November 12
  15. NVIDIA fiscal 2026 10-K. 10-K
  16. MLQ.ai, November 12; Roll Call, January 21. MLQ.ai · Roll Call
  17. NVIDIA 8-K on June 2026 votes. 8-K
  18. Yahoo Finance holders page (13F). Holders
  19. NVIDIA release on Suzanne Nora Johnson, May 2026. Release
  20. CNBC and Reuters, November 11. CNBC · Reuters
  21. Memory makers on 2027 supply. SK hynix · Samsung · Micron
  22. Buyers’ third-quarter reports. Microsoft · Alphabet · Amazon · Meta
  23. NVIDIA August 26 call transcript. StockAnalysis

Disclosures. I hold Nvidia shares and a February 2027 call. I bought on November 5 and in the week of November 9, inside my own trading blackout, and did not sell when the shares closed below my partial-exit level on November 5 or my exit level on November 10 to 12, both exceptions to my process. No new order will be placed before November 26. I also hold AMD, Marvell, Micron, Alphabet and a memory-chip fund, and no Broadcom or TSMC. AI tools helped draft this note; the AI is Claude, made by Anthropic, in which Nvidia has committed to invest up to $10 billion (Anthropic, November 2025); AMD, Micron and Alphabet also have disclosed Anthropic relationships. No company paid for this note. Revised November 13: disclosures and citations completed.

Not investment advice. Brandon Leon is a publisher, not a registered investment adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Allegations described here have not been proved. Probabilities and values are my estimates.