Writing
Long-form pieces land on bpleon.com first, then on Substack as a newsletter. Single-name pitches, sector primers, and methodology notes across semis and AI, energy, and the commodities + macro layer that drives them — where through-cycle work is interesting and the price often disagrees with reality.
The S&P broke its nine-week streak with a −2.6% week to 7,383.74. Broadcom’s record $10.8B AI quarter with a maintained 2027 outlook triggered the chip selloff Thursday. Friday’s 172K NFP (vs 85K expected) killed the cut hopes; 10Y above 4.54%. Dell tested the bottom of our consolidation zone. Today: Iran/Israel exchange + WTI gap above $94. Trip-wires refreshed, CapEx-raise call still open into June 25.
MU peaked at $1,079.57 on June 3 ($20 short of our second trim), then crashed 20% after Broadcom’s Q3 total revenue guide came in light of aggressive Street and a hot May NFP. The PHLX semi index posted its worst session since April 2025 on Friday. Monday June 8, Wells Fargo and Cantor Fitzgerald both raised PTs through the drawdown ($1,220 and $1,500). MU bouncing +8% intraday around $948. The first trim looks better in hindsight. The framework still holds. FQ3 prints June 24.
The S&P closed Friday at 7,580 — ninth straight up week, the longest streak since 2023. Dell put up its best single day on record at +33%. PCE came in at 3.3% Y/Y, 50bp above our hawkish scenario. The 10Y rallied 25bp from its peak. Three of our non-consensus calls broke (the mean-reversion math, the cross-asset divergence, the AI-multiples canary). What we got wrong, where the thesis still holds, and the pivot into June.
UBS tripled its PT to a Street-high $1,625. Three weeks ago I was the lone voice at $1,100; now six of eleven sell-side firms are at or above me and two are at or above my $1,500 bull case (UBS, DA Davidson). MU closed Friday at $923.52 — my first trim level fired the day after publishing. PT stays at $1,100; ladder continues at $1,100 / $1,400 / $1,500 full exit. When the variant view becomes consensus, the discipline isn’t celebration. It’s trim.
The supercycle passed all three tests last week. NVIDIA crushed it with a $91B Q2 guide ($4B above Street). Walmart U.S. comp +4.1%. The FOMC April minutes printed the most divided meeting since October 1992. S&P booked an eighth straight up week. But NVDA closed -1.77% on the print, the 10Y closed at 4.56%, and the hawks at the Fed want hikes back on the table. Friday's April core PCE decides whether the dovish framing holds or the rotation finally begins.
Wednesday May 20 is binary: FOMC minutes at 2pm (read on the most-divided April vote since 1992) and NVIDIA earnings after close (the $87B Q2 guide threshold) land in the same 8-hour window. Plus the consumer test: Home Depot Tue, TJX Wed, Walmart Thu. What to watch, what each outcome means, and the calendar that runs the week.
Hot CPI (3.8%), soft retail (+0.5%), record-low Michigan sentiment (48.2), 10Y at 4.49%, Fed cut odds collapsed to 3%. S&P and Nasdaq still printed new ATHs. Cisco AI orders 4× YoY, NVDA H200 cleared for 10 Chinese firms, Micron +38% on the week (best since Dec 2008). What we’re watching today and into next week’s NVDA print.
Markets head into Friday’s payrolls print with the economy clearly cooling — but equities have not broken. Semiconductors and AI infrastructure are doing the heavy lifting while the rest of the cycle decelerates. Six inline charts and the full sector positioning framework.
Filed in Reports · HTML pitch with reverse-DCF + scenarios.
Mid-cycle Micron at $750–$850; the market is pricing peak earnings at trough multiples. Reverse-DCF, the HBM mix shift, and the three observable kill-shots that would make me wrong.
Micron printed +11% on Tuesday and crossed $700 billion in market cap for the first time. A four-corner catalyst stack (DA Davidson Street-high $1,000 PT, hyperscaler memory-cost commentary, sold-out HBM through 2026, round-number flow) and a CEO Form 4 on the same day. Pulling the price target pending the full pitch on Friday May 8.
Soft-landing narrative meets sticky inflation, a concentrated AI rally, and an increasingly structural geopolitical tape. What to watch into payrolls, ISM Services, and JOLTS — plus four sector ideas and four macro options structures for the week.
Notes on the April 29 FOMC meeting. Markets are watching the rate path; the more differentiated story is the institution. Powell stays on the Board, four dissents, Warsh advances toward confirmation, and the under-priced risk shows up in term premium rather than the front-end policy path.
XOM, CVX, COP, SHEL, BP ranked on through-cycle capital allocation discipline. Buybacks vs. project IRRs, who's being rewarded for promises and who's actually earned it.
A methodology piece. The footnotes nobody reads, the line items that actually move the story, and the checklist I've built up working on cyclicals.
For the methodology that produces these — the workbook, the pipeline, the audits — see the DCF template. For coverage at a glance, see /projects.
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