Now

What I'm working on right now.

A short snapshot updated when things change. The point is honesty about focus, not breadth.

Updated 2026-07-14

Micron is still the anchor. It was a whipsaw week — the stock round-tripped on a memory-pricing scare and then ripped back — so I wrote it up in the rollercoaster note: where I still diverge from the Street, and why the through-cycle HBM thesis survives the noise. The discipline hasn't changed: underwrite the base case on what's contracted, treat the structural bull case as optionality, and say so out loud when a call is wrong.

Widening coverage beyond the single name. Initiating on ASML — the lithography monopoly one layer up the semis stack — and building out two thematic sleeves: a power / electrification book (the AI-capex has to plug into something) and a small quantum-computing optionality sleeve. The weekly macro outlook keeps running alongside it every week.

Also just published a public Track Record page — an honest scorecard of every call, hits and misses, marked to market. If the theses are falsifiable, the record should be too. Cadence is when there's something worth saying; subscribe on Substack or check the writing page.

Past nows

2026-05

Heads-down on Micron: initiation and the long-form through-cycle write-up went live, Hold-rated with a base-case PT anchored on a normalized-margin peak rather than the HBM blue-sky. Interviewed for equity-research seats at bulge-bracket and boutique shops, re-read every MU 10-K back to FY22, and shipped the same-day note after the +11% session and $700B market-cap cross.
2026-04

Published The Fed After Powell (April 29 FOMC notes — Senate Banking 13-11, Powell's "until well and truly over" exit framing, what the March SEP actually implies). Wrote the May 5 same-day MU note after the +11% session and $700B market-cap cross. Shipped the Trading Comps Workbook (free demo + paid tiers) and the LBO/M&A template with a Microsoft–Activision walkthrough.
2026-03

Built the DCF and LBO/M&A templates from scratch with worked Micron examples — Football Field, Mini-DCF, WACC, cyclical adjustments. Migrated bpleon.com to Cloudflare Pages and wrote the Worker that powers the live tickers, sparklines, and watchlist.

This is a /now page — a simple convention used by independent writers and researchers to share what they're up to without the noise of social media.