Coverage
Equity research, in progress and shipped.
Single-name pitches and methodology artifacts across semis and
AI (Micron, NVDA, AMD), energy (XOM, CVX), and the commodities +
macro layer that drives them. Each entry below links to the full
work where it exists, or sketches the thesis where it's still
being built.
Shipped
May 2026 · Methodology artifact · Open page →
17-tab Excel workbook shipped as two worked Micron scorecards
(through-cycle + AI-cycle) so methodology disagreement is
explicit. Sources & uses, year-by-year debt schedule with
covenant tracking, sponsor returns attribution (EBITDA growth /
multiple expansion / debt paydown), reverse-LBO take-private
analysis, reverse-DCF decomposition, peer-blended comps with
percentile bands, accretion/dilution under three financing mixes,
full 3-statement projection with balance-sheet plug, sanity-check
auto-flags. Python pipeline available on request.
Apr 2026 · Methodology artifact · Open page →
20-tab Excel workbook with a worked Micron example: two-stage
FCFF DCF, peer-blended multiples, three scenarios with
cycle-aware paths, reverse-DCF decomposition, sensitivity
tables. The Python pipeline that auto-populates this for any
ticker is available on request. Built around an IB-grade
research methodology, audited end-to-end to sell-side IC
standards.
May 2026 · Memory / semiconductors · Single-name pitch · Open page →
Through-cycle thesis on Micron Technology against a cyclical
comparable. HBM contribution to the next cycle peak, mid-cycle
EBIT margin normalisation, what today's price implicitly
requires via reverse-DCF, and the bear-case kill shot for
anyone underweighting the name. Workbook + write-up live.
Forthcoming
Integrated oil — capital-allocation tier list
Forthcoming
Target: Q2 2026 · Energy · Cross-section
XOM, CVX, COP, SHEL, BP ranked on through-cycle capital
allocation discipline: CapEx versus operating cash flow,
buyback cadence, debt paydown, project IRRs against the
commodity strip. The thesis: at this point in the cycle, the
price/book versus ROCE spread tells you who is still being
rewarded for promises and who has actually earned it.
Sector scorecards
Ongoing
Internal tooling · Ships with the DCF pipeline
Per-sector sets of through-cycle factors — mid-cycle
CapEx %, NWC %, EBIT margin floor and ceiling —
calibrated to historical full cycles. Plugs into the DCF
pipeline as the default for any ticker in that sector. Memory,
energy, and autos are calibrated. Software and industrials are
next.
How I work
Every published pitch ships with the workbook that produced
it. Every assumption is named; every fallback is transparent.
Where the data is absent — a private name, a missing
fiscal year, a peer with a non-comparable accounting policy
— the model says "N/A" instead of silently filling in a
magic number. This is the bar I hold every piece I publish to.
Get in touch →
See the template
