Weekly outlook · the week to November 11, 2026 · into the December 9 Fed decision
The Hike Is Priced. The Chips Rallied Anyway.
October core inflation ran 0.3% for a third straight month on Tuesday, hours after Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point increase “should be considered” if it did, and Kalshi now prices a hold on December 9 at 5% and a move larger than a quarter point at 12%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 9.3% across the same three sessions to 506.96, about half of it on Monday before either piece of funding news and the rest on Wednesday, after CoreWeave reported $132.5B of backlog and Anthropic set terms for an offering of up to $64.35B. We expect a quarter point, we name the level at which the half point becomes a live option, and we read the second leg of the chip rally as the funding window reopening and not as the market’s verdict on rates.
We Expect a Quarter Point in December and We Do Not Fade the Half
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to raise its target range by a quarter point on December 9, to 4.00% to 4.25%, and we treat a half point as the named surprise we will not fade. The committee held ten to two on October 28, and since then payrolls rose 165,000, core consumer prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month and a governor who voted to hold said a larger move “should be considered” (Chart 3).3,4 The stock market absorbed that repricing without giving back the rebound in the names we have tracked, as SMH closed at 506.96, 9.3% above Friday’s close and 2.2% below its Election Day close, while the two-year Treasury yield rose 22 basis points in two sessions (Chart 1).1 We read Wednesday’s leg of the rally as funding and not as rates, because the week’s two pieces of company news were about who pays for the buildout, and we read Monday’s leg, which came before either, as the rebound it looked like. We set one test on the size of the Fed’s move and one on that funding reading below.
1. The week so far
Three Sessions Reversed Most of Last Week and Repriced the Fed
- Monday: The Dow rose 1,104 points and the S&P 500 rose 2.35% in its best session since April 8, as oil fell 4.4% and the chip ETF rose 5.1%. AMD rose 13.3% after an Oppenheimer upgrade, while Nvidia fell 4.3% after its board opened an independent investigation into allegations involving its chief executive.1,2
- Tuesday: October consumer prices rose 0.4% against a 0.3% consensus and core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2%, and the two-year yield rose 17 basis points to 4.73% while the ten-year traded above 5.00% before closing at 4.98%. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the chip ETF fell 0.8% and Nvidia fell 5.5%.1,3,5
- Wednesday: With the bond market closed for Veterans Day, CoreWeave rose 24.7% after raising its 2026 guidance and the chip ETF rose 4.8%, with Micron up 11.9%, Marvell up 9.3% and Nvidia recovering 2.9%.1,6
Across the three sessions the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 3.6% and the Dow rose 2.3%, and the VIX ended at 17.5 against 25.6 on Friday. The rates market moved the other way, with the two-year at 4.73% against 4.51% on Friday and the gap between the ten-year and the two-year narrowing from 35 to 25 basis points, which is the shape a market draws when it prices the Fed and not the Treasury’s supply.1
Chart 1: Rates Up, Chips Up
The two-year yield rose 22 basis points in two sessions and the chip ETF rose 9.3% across the same week.
The front end repriced on Tuesday’s inflation report and Governor Waller’s speech, and the chip ETF closed within 1% of flat that day and rose on either side of it.
2. The scorecard
December Survived the Labor Data
The one test our Friday recap left open has resolved. Our November 4 outlook said a Kalshi price of a December increase at or above 69.5% at Friday’s daily close would mean the committee’s path had survived the jobs report, and the close posted at 77.5%, so under its original criteria the test showed the path surviving, and we have logged it.1,10 The contract that series tracks is the quarter-point one, a distinction that mattered little while the larger-move contract traded in single digits and matters now (Chart 4).
The Thursday Line Cleared One Session Late
Our third line last week read Thursday’s selloff as positioning on a close above 470.00, and Friday’s close of 463.96 left it inconclusive. Monday’s close was 487.41, so the reading the line was built to give arrived one session after its window shut. We do not regrade it, and the lesson we logged on Friday stands: a one-session window around an 11% fall was too short to read.10
The No-Bottom Rule Has One Bought Beat and Seven Sessions Left
The rule from October 23 predicts that SMH trails the S&P 500 fund from that day’s close to the close on November 20, and it lifts early only when the market buys a beat and SMH posts a weekly close above 546.40. Since October 23 SMH has fallen 3.8% and sits behind the S&P 500 fund by 3.8 percentage points, so the prediction is still ahead with seven sessions left, against a margin of 8.7 points on Friday. The first half of the early re-read arrived, on a looser reading than the late-October capex prints we registered: CoreWeave’s report was bought, with the shares up 24.7% and SMH up 4.8% on the day, after the first four prints we tested this season were sold and AMD’s added 1.0%. The second half has not: SMH needs another 7.8% for a weekly close above the line, with Nvidia reporting on Tuesday (Chart 2).1,10
The standing lines read as follows. The ten-year closed Tuesday at 4.98%, below the 5.10% that says the supply is biting, after Treasury sold $42B of ten-year notes at 5.020% this week. On the financing names, Lumentum’s discount to the implied value of the 4.5 Marvell shares offered per share narrowed to 14.7%, back inside the 15% at which our card says the market doubts the close, while CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swap, where below 800 basis points heals and at or above 1,140 deepens, has no reading we can date this week.1,9
Chart 2: Back to Election Day, Still Under the Line
The chip ETF ended 9.3% above Friday’s close and needs another 7.8% to reach the weekly close that lifts our rule.
The rule reads weekly closes, on November 13 and November 20. The circle marks the Election Day close, the last close before the election result and the two sessions of selling that followed.
3. The Fed
A Governor Named His Condition Before Dawn and the Data Met It at 8:30
Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London at 4:00 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, four and a half hours before the inflation report. He said he was “leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points” in December even if inflation improved, and then set a condition: if October’s data were “similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed.”4 In that case, he said, “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” and he added: “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”4 The print: core prices rose 0.3%, the same as August and September, and all items rose 0.4% after 0.6%, which puts the three-month pace at 3.7% annualized for core and 5.7% for all items (Chart 3).3 The condition a sitting governor wrote down was met on the terms in which he wrote it.
Chart 3: Three Months at 0.3%
Core prices rose 0.3% in each of the last three months, a 3.7% annual pace against the Fed’s 2% goal.
Governor Waller’s condition for considering a half point was October core inflation “around 0.3 percent or even higher.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics published no 12-month changes because it did not collect prices in October 2025, and the Fed’s 2% goal is defined on PCE prices and not on the CPI shown here.
The Market Priced the Quarter Point and Left the Half as a Tail
Kalshi’s contract on a December hold closed Monday at 20% and Tuesday at 5%. The quarter-point contract stood at 86% at 4:17 p.m. ET Wednesday, the contract on a larger move at 12% against 1% on Monday, and the contract on a further increase in January at 51% against 20% (Chart 4).1 Neither official who spoke after the report followed him to a half point. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voter this year, said she expects two more quarter-point increases and then a pause, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman named no size, saying policy “is not on a preset course” and that the benefit of further tightening “has to be carefully weighed against its costs for interest-rate-sensitive sectors” before pointing to the October PCE report and the November jobs report still to come.5,4 Goldman Sachs now expects increases in December and in March, and UBS keeps quarter-point increases at both meetings as its base case.6 The December quarter point is our base case as well, and it is why we set the half point as a line to watch and not as a forecast.
Chart 4: The Hold Went Away in One Session
A December hold fell from 20% to 5%, a move larger than a quarter point rose from 1% to 12%, and a January increase went from 20% to 51%.
Readings are last-trade closes, with Wednesday’s taken at 4:17 p.m. ET. The series our October 28 and November 4 notes tracked is the quarter-point contract; the larger-move contract closed no higher than 6% from mid-October until Tuesday.
The Committee Decides Before It Sees November’s Inflation
The calendar favors whoever is arguing from October’s numbers. Producer prices arrive Friday, retail sales on Tuesday, and the minutes of the October meeting on Wednesday, November 18, which describe a debate held before the payroll and inflation reports that changed the pricing (Chart 5).9 October PCE inflation follows on November 25, the blackout begins on November 28, and the November jobs report lands on December 4. November’s consumer price index is scheduled for December 10, the morning after the decision, so October’s 0.3% is the last core CPI reading the committee will have, with October core PCE on November 25 the one consumer inflation print that can still soften or harden it, and no later CPI can take Waller’s condition back.9 Our October 28 note called December “the wing’s meeting to win,” and the wing now has the data, a second governor leaning its way and a calendar on which no consumer price report can contradict it.10
Chart 5: The Road to December 9
The committee decides on December 9, and November’s consumer prices arrive the morning after.
October’s report is the last consumer price index the committee will have. The pricing and first-trade dates for Anthropic are as reported by CNBC’s sources and not confirmed by the company.
4. Why the chips rallied
The Funding Window Reopened in the Week the Hike Was Priced
Our financing reading holds that investors are repricing the companies most dependent on outside money to fund the AI buildout, and this week that money showed up from two directions. Customers: CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66B against a $3.55B consensus and a backlog of about $132.5B against $104B in June, raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0B to $13.3B, and said it expects about $9B of customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.7 Its finance chief said that at current yields “we do not intend to issue additional parent-level unsecured debt through 2027,” with about $46.9B of debt on the balance sheet and interest expense guided to $1.05B to $1.15B next quarter from $846M.7 Equity: Anthropic set terms for 825M shares at $70 to $78, up to $64.35B, with a further $26B of stock placed with AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC at the offering price, and CNBC’s sources described the book as covered across the range.8 The Chair said on October 28 that “interest rates get in the cracks,” and the finance chief’s sentence about yields is what a crack looks like in a company’s own words: the rate did not stop the buildout, and it did take unsecured borrowing by the parent off the table for now, which moves CoreWeave’s next dollar toward customers and toward lenders secured on its contracts.10
The Names That Fell Hardest Rose the Most, Which Is Also What a Rebound Looks Like
The five companies in our sample on either side of an equity raise or an all-stock deal are up 11% to 31% since Friday, against −1.8% to +3.1% for the four cloud buyers, and across all 22 names this week’s gains sorted by last week’s losses with a correlation of −0.64 (Chart 6).1 The sorting was stronger on Wednesday, after the funding news, at −0.69, than on Monday, before it, at −0.48. That ordering is what a funding relief predicts and it is also what a rebound from an oversold week produces, and Baird’s Ross Mayfield described Wednesday’s tape as an unwinding of last week’s overshoot.6 Nvidia and Iren are the exceptions, the only two names down in both weeks. Nvidia is −15.9% from its Election Day close after a company-specific shock, which is a reminder that the largest supplier reports on Tuesday under a cloud the rest of the group does not share, and Iren is −14.8% after the delayed revenue it disclosed last week.1,2 The rates do not appear to explain it. On Tuesday the odds of a December increase rose 15 points and the two-year rose 17 basis points while SMH fell 0.8%, and across the 11 sessions from the October 28 hold the daily change in those odds and the daily move in SMH have a correlation of +0.60, positive where a rate-driven selloff would be negative. One session carries much of that figure, and without it the correlation is +0.27, which 10 sessions cannot tell from zero.1
Chart 6: The Hardest Hit Rose the Most
This week’s gains sorted by last week’s losses, a correlation of −0.64 across 22 names, with Nvidia and Iren the two that fell in both weeks.
A funding relief and a rebound from an oversold week produce the same picture, so the chart is consistent with our reading and does not prove it. Excluding Nvidia the correlation is −0.69.
5. What we test next
Two New Tests Read on November 20, After Nvidia, the Minutes and the Offering
We registered both tests in our ledger on Wednesday afternoon, before the producer price report, Nvidia’s results, the October minutes and the Anthropic pricing they are meant to read. The first asks whether the half point becomes a committee option or stays one governor’s marker, and the second asks whether outside equity funds the buildout at the price being asked. Cisco and Applied Materials report on Thursday and Nvidia on Tuesday, November 17, and the no-bottom rule takes its final reading on November 20 with all three in hand.9,10
- The size (new, read at the November 20 close): Kalshi’s contract on a December move larger than a quarter point, now 12%. Below 25% keeps the quarter point as the base case; at or above 25% says the half point is a live committee option and we under-weighted the named surprise; below 5% says the marker was one governor’s.
- Who pays (new, read at the November 20 close): the Anthropic offering pricing at or above $74, the midpoint, with at least 825M shares, says outside equity is available at scale; $70 to $73.99 is inconclusive; below $70, fewer shares or no pricing by that date says the window is narrower than this week implied.
- The no-bottom rule (final reading November 20): SMH against the S&P 500 fund from the October 23 close, with a weekly close above 546.40 the line that lifts it early.
- The standing lines: a ten-year Friday close above 5.10% says the supply is biting and at or above 5.31% puts the pressure back; Lumentum’s discount to the implied value of 4.5 Marvell shares wider than 15% says the market doubts the close and under 8% says it believes it; CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swap spread below 800 basis points heals and at or above 1,140 deepens.
Our record on this committee argues for humility, because the December pricing call we registered on October 28 died two days later and the lesson we wrote down in June was not to fade a risk the Chair has every incentive to deliver. Siding with a quarter point at 86% is siding with the market, and a governor has said in public that a quarter point would put the committee’s credibility at risk. The funding reading rests on one company’s release and remarks and one filing we read only through CNBC, on prepayments that are expected and not yet received and on an offering that has not priced, and the rally it explains is equally well explained by an oversold week unwinding. The correlation between hike odds and the chips covers 11 sessions and is not distinguishable from zero without one of them. The author holds several of the names discussed, added to Nvidia this week and holds a call option on it, which is a reason to check this reading harder and not a reason to trust it.
6. Something to think about
The Suppliers Are Buying the Customer’s Stock
Seven companies that supply the chips and cloud capacity Anthropic runs on agreed to buy $26B of its stock at the offering price, and Anthropic’s amended prospectus lists about $895.4B of purchase commitments and leases, substantially all of it for compute and infrastructure.8 CoreWeave, which rents that kind of capacity, expects to be paid in advance by its customers and has said it does not intend to add unsecured parent-level debt at today’s yields, and CNBC describes Anthropic as a key CoreWeave customer, though neither company has said whose prepayments make up the $9B.7 Each of those arrangements is sensible on its own terms, and together they describe a chain in which suppliers fund a customer, customers prepay a landlord and the landlord orders from the suppliers.
We have spent a month asking who pays for the buildout, and this week’s answer is that the members of the chain are paying one another while the public market is asked for up to $64B on top. That is a reason the chips could rise through a week in which the two-year yield rose 22 basis points, because prepayments and share sales do not reprice day to day with the two-year, and it is also the reason we set a test on the offering and not on the yield.
Which leaves the question for the weeks before December 9: when the suppliers buy the customer’s stock and the customer prepays the landlord, which link in the chain is still outside money, and what does the Fed’s next increase cost that one?
Sources
- Prices from Yahoo Finance, as of Wednesday’s close: S&P 500 7,619.38 (+3.3% since Friday), Nasdaq Composite 25,466.19 (+3.6%), Dow 52,486.49 (+2.3%), SMH 506.96 (+9.3%; Monday +5.1%, Tuesday −0.8%, Wednesday +4.8%; −2.2% from the Election Day close of 518.52; −10.7% since October 28), VIX 17.5, WTI crude −4.4% on Monday. Company prices and moves: Microsoft 521.12 (+1.7% last week, −1.8% since Friday, +0.0% from Election Day); Alphabet 293.45 (+1.8% last week, +3.0% since Friday, +4.8% from Election Day); Amazon 266.17 (+7.9% last week, +2.6% since Friday, +6.2% from Election Day); Meta 628.77 (−0.8% last week, +3.1% since Friday, +1.2% from Election Day); Nvidia 173.73 (−8.8% last week, −6.9% since Friday, −15.9% from Election Day); Broadcom 345.22 (−9.9% last week, +17.5% since Friday, +3.9% from Election Day); TSMC 413.35 (−7.6% last week, +10.1% since Friday, +2.1% from Election Day); Qualcomm 176.57 (+0.4% last week, +6.7% since Friday, +7.4% from Election Day); AMD 552.90 (−11.0% last week, +23.1% since Friday, +14.3% from Election Day); Micron 811.30 (−22.0% last week, +17.6% since Friday, −5.1% from Election Day); Arm 203.36 (−15.2% last week, +16.5% since Friday, +0.4% from Election Day); Oracle 128.38 (−11.2% last week, +10.6% since Friday, +1.7% from Election Day); Intel 62.50 (−14.4% last week, +11.1% since Friday, +3.2% from Election Day); CoreWeave 60.77 (−15.4% last week, +31.0% since Friday, +13.1% from Election Day); Marvell 168.80 (−28.1% last week, +19.5% since Friday, −1.8% from Election Day); Lumentum 648.06 (−35.9% last week, +20.3% since Friday, −4.7% from Election Day); Nebius 154.69 (−16.0% last week, +19.5% since Friday, +2.0% from Election Day); Iren 20.84 (−9.6% last week, −3.7% since Friday, −14.8% from Election Day); Digital Realty 181.13 (−3.6% last week, +4.0% since Friday, +0.5% from Election Day); Equinix 1,068.06 (−0.1% last week, +5.5% since Friday, +5.3% from Election Day); Vistra 133.45 (−9.8% last week, +6.9% since Friday, −4.4% from Election Day); Constellation 274.73 (−4.7% last week, +9.9% since Friday, +4.3% from Election Day). SMH against SPY from the October 23 close: −3.8% and +0.0%. Treasury par yields (U.S. Treasury): two-year 4.51% (Nov 6), 4.56% (Nov 9), 4.73% (Nov 10); ten-year 4.86%, 4.88%, 4.98%; thirty-year 5.35% (Nov 10). Kalshi contracts on the December 9 decision, last-trade daily closes, with Wednesday read at 4:17 p.m. ET Wednesday: hold (KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0) Nov 6 25%; Nov 9 20%; Nov 10 5%, now 5%; hike 25bps (H25) Nov 6 77%; Nov 9 80%; Nov 10 85%, now 86%; hike more than 25bps (H26) Nov 6 1%; Nov 9 1%; Nov 10 11%, now 12%; January 27 hike 25bps (KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25) Nov 6 20%; Nov 9 20%; Nov 10 50%, now 51%. Contract prices are quoted separately and do not sum to 100. The DefiRate daily-close series for the quarter-point contract, which our November 4 test named, posted 77.5% for November 6. Lumentum’s discount: 4.5 Marvell shares × 168.80 = 759.60 against Lumentum at 648.06, 14.7%. Correlations are our arithmetic: this week against last week across 22 names −0.64 (−0.69 excluding Nvidia; last week against Monday alone −0.48 and against Wednesday alone −0.69); daily change in 100 minus the hold price against the daily SMH move over 11 sessions from October 28, +0.60 (+0.27 excluding November 5). ↩
- CNBC live blog, updated November 9, 4:26 p.m. EST: the Dow rose 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75; the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8; WTI crude settled 4.38% lower at $86.85; Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to outperform with a $600 target; Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation into allegations involving its chief executive, and the company said he intends to continue in the role. ↩
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, October 2026 (USDL-26-1685, released November 10, 8:30 a.m. ET): all items +0.4% seasonally adjusted after +0.6% in September; all items less food and energy +0.3%, the same as September and August; shelter +0.3%; energy +0.7%. Table A, April to October: all items 0.6, 0.5, −0.4, 0.1, 0.4, 0.6, 0.4; core 0.4, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3. The release publishes no 12-month changes for all items or core because October 2025 prices were not collected during the lapse in appropriations. Annualized three-month rates are our arithmetic. Consensus (0.3% and 0.2%) is Dow Jones, per CNBC. ↩
- Federal Reserve Board speeches of November 10, 2026: Governor Christopher J. Waller, “The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism,” London, quoted as published, including “I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting”; Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, “The U.S. Economy and Considerations for Monetary Policy”: “monetary policy is not on a preset course” and “Before our next meeting in December, we will receive the PCE inflation report for October and the employment report for November.” The speech time is from the Board’s calendar. ↩
- CNBC live blog, updated November 10, 4:35 p.m. EST: the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93 and the Dow 157.86 points; the ten-year yield reached 5.004% intraday; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, speaking in Houston, said she expects two more quarter-point increases followed by a pause. CNBC on Governor Waller’s speech, November 10: after the speech and the report traders fully priced a quarter-point December increase and put 12.5% odds on a half point. ↩
- CNBC live blog, updated November 11, 11:49 a.m. EST: the U.S. bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day; CME FedWatch odds of a December quarter-point increase were about 90% after the inflation report; Goldman Sachs now expects increases in December and March, and UBS keeps quarter-point increases in December and March as its base case; Ross Mayfield of Baird Private Wealth Management said markets were unwinding the prior week’s overshoot. ↩
- CoreWeave, “CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results,” November 10, 2026: revenue $3,661 million against $1,365 million a year earlier; revenue backlog about $132.5 billion; net loss $709 million; interest expense, net, $846 million and fourth-quarter guidance of $1.05 to $1.15 billion; 2026 revenue guidance raised to $13.0 to $13.3 billion and capital spending guidance narrowed to $37 to $39 billion from $35 to $39 billion; debt of $46.9 billion is the sum of the recourse and non-recourse lines on its balance sheet; the release attributes to Chief Executive Michael Intrator the expectation of approximately $9 billion of customer prepayments and deposits in the next three months. CNBC, November 10: the $3.55 billion LSEG consensus, the $104 billion June backlog, and Chief Financial Officer Nitin Agrawal’s statement about unsecured parent-level debt at current yields, quoted above as CNBC reported it; the release itself describes funding that includes financing backed by customer contracts. ↩
- CNBC on Anthropic’s offering terms, November 10, 2026, citing the amended registration statement: 825 million shares, up to $64.35 billion of proceeds, $26 billion of Class N stock sold to Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC at the offering price, Nasdaq ticker ANT; pricing on November 18, first trading on November 19 and a book covered across the range are attributed to people familiar with the details. CNBC, November 2: committed spend of about $895.4 billion under purchase commitments and leases, substantially all of it for compute and infrastructure. We did not read the registration statement itself. ↩
- Calendar: Federal Reserve, meeting calendar (December 8-9 with projections) and November events (Governor Waller’s speech at 4:00 a.m. on November 10; October minutes November 18, 2:00 p.m.); Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules for producer prices (November 13), employment (December 4) and consumer prices (December 10); Bureau of Economic Analysis (personal income and outlays for October, November 25); Census Bureau (retail sales November 17). The blackout date follows the committee’s rule, the second Saturday before the meeting. Earnings: Nvidia, November 17; Cisco and Applied Materials, November 12. Auctions: TreasuryDirect, ten-year notes $42 billion at a high yield of 5.020% and three-year notes $58 billion at 4.627%, both settling November 16. ↩
- Our own record: the December test is CALL-WEEKLY-20261104-DECX2 (preregistered November 3, graded seq 278); the Thursday line is CALL-THU-20261105-LEGS (seq 276, inconclusive); the no-bottom rule is CALL-SEMIS-BOTTOM-20261023 (seq 221, final reading November 20); the new tests are CALL-WEEKLY-20261111-SIZE (seq 279) and CALL-WEEKLY-20261111-ANTIPO (seq 280), both preregistered November 11 before the events they read. The October call that died is CALL-FOMC-20261028-DECX (seq 260). The Chair’s remark and “the wing’s meeting to win” are in our October 28 Fed note; last week’s lines are in the November 4 outlook and the November 6 recap, which also carries the October payroll figure and its source. The 546.40 level is the one registered on October 23; our November 4 outlook described it as the October 16 weekly close, which was 539.79, and that note now carries a dated correction while the registered level stands. ↩
Nothing on this page is investment advice. We work in scenarios and trip-wires, not predictions. See disclaimer.
Disclosure: per the author’s brokerage positions page at 3:46 p.m. ET on November 11, 2026, the author holds long positions in AMD, Marvell, Micron, Nvidia and Alphabet (class C shares), a call option on Nvidia that expires in February 2027, and shares of a memory-chip ETF. Since the close on November 6 the author has added to the Nvidia shares, bought the Nvidia call option and sold half of the Marvell position, and Nvidia reports on November 17, before the tests above are read. AMD, Marvell and Micron closed through the author’s approved exit levels on November 5, and Nvidia through its approved partial-exit level; of those exits only half of the Marvell position has been sold, and the Nvidia position was increased and not reduced. The author holds no position in CoreWeave, Oracle, Intel, Broadcom, TSMC, Qualcomm, Arm, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Lumentum, Nebius, Iren, Digital Realty, Equinix, Vistra, Constellation, Cisco or Applied Materials, or in the SMH or SPY funds. This note is research and opinion, published to all readers alike, and is not investment advice for any person; the tests above are the author’s own and are graded in public against their written wording. bpleon research received no compensation from any company named.