Live-refresh Excel workbook + 19 tabs + Python source. Cyclical industries focus. Free monthly research notes.
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For cyclicals — semis, oil & gas, materials, mining. Plug in 7-10 years of revenue and EBITDA. The tool computes mid-cycle margin, normalized EBITDA, and through-cycle EV/EBITDA. The IB-correct way to value a stock at the top OR bottom of a cycle.
Annual revenue and EBITDA for the most recent full cycle. 7+ years recommended.
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | vs Mean |
|---|
Mid-cycle margin = mean of (EBITDA ÷ Revenue) across the cycle window. By averaging across peaks AND troughs, you smooth out the noise and get the company's structural earnings power.
Mid-cycle EBITDA = mid-cycle margin × LTM revenue. This is the "normalized" earnings number — what the company would earn at average cycle conditions on today's revenue base.
Through-cycle EV/EBITDA = current EV ÷ mid-cycle EBITDA. The honest multiple for cyclicals. LTM EV/EBITDA at a peak makes everything look cheap; through-cycle EV/EBITDA tells you what you're really paying.
Implied price = (mid-cycle EBITDA × your benchmark multiple − net debt) ÷ shares. Use the historical median EV/EBITDA for that company or sector as the benchmark.
When to use this: any time a company is at the top or bottom of its operating cycle. Memory (MU, Hynix), oil & gas (XOM, CVX, EOG), industrial commodities (FCX, NUE), shipping (ZIM, FRO). The further LTM is from mid-cycle, the more this tool changes your view.
The full toolkit pulls 10-year financials from Yahoo Finance and computes mid-cycle EBITDA + through-cycle multiples for any ticker, plus 19 tabs of supporting analysis (Football Field, Mini DCF, WACC, Sensitivity).
→ See the full toolkitNothing on this page is investment advice. Built by Brandon Leon — independent research focused on cyclical industries.