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Equity research · Semis · AI · Commodities
Reading markets, writing it down.
Hi, I'm Brandon. I publish equity research across the names I track most closely — semis and AI infrastructure (Micron, NVDA, AMD), energy (XOM, CVX), and the commodities + macro layer that drives them. Through-cycle valuation is the lens, built on an audited DCF pipeline I wrote myself. My team out of Cal State Fullerton won the 2023 CFA Institute Research Challenge for the Americas. I write because the work is the point — everything on this site is free.
Just published
All writing →Just published · Apr 30, 2026
The Fed After Powell
The market is watching the rate path; it should be watching the institution. Notes on the April 29 FOMC meeting — four dissents, Powell staying on the Board, Warsh advancing toward confirmation, and where the next major repricing is most likely to come from.
Read the piece →
What I'm watching
All picks →Live prices via Yahoo Finance. Targets and theses are mine — not investment advice. Disclaimer.
World markets
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Featured
All writing →Coming up · Q2 2026
MU — Through-cycle long
The first published pitch: HBM contribution to the next cycle peak, mid-cycle EBIT margin normalisation, what today's price implicitly requires via reverse-DCF, and the bear-case kill shot.
See the brief →
Tools & templates
All tools →DCF Calculator
Plug in revenue, margin, WACC, terminal growth. Watch the implied share price move live, see a sensitivity grid.
Open →
Spreadsheet templates
Free downloadable models — DCF, comps, LBO, earnings tracker. Open in Excel or Sheets, edit freely.
Browse →
Long-form reports
Sector deep-dives, earnings previews, primers. PDF format, free to download. Updated when there's something worth saying.
Read →
Selected work
All projects →-
Template
IB-grade DCF Template
20-tab Excel workbook with a worked Micron example: two-stage FCFF DCF, peer-blended multiples, three scenarios, reverse-DCF decomposition.
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Pitch
MU — Through-cycle long
Through-cycle thesis on Micron Technology against a cyclical comp. Workbook finalised; write-up in progress.
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Cross-section
Integrated oil — capital-allocation tier list
XOM, CVX, COP, SHEL, BP ranked on through-cycle capital allocation discipline against the commodity strip.
On deck
All writing →Currently reading & watching
- Reading Chip War by Chris Miller — the cleanest narrative of how the semiconductor stack became the most strategically valuable industry on the planet. Mandatory background reading for anyone valuing NVDA, AMD, or Micron.
- Watching The 10Y yield. HBM ASP commentary in the next round of memory prints. Capex guides from the AI buildout (NVDA, AVGO, the hyperscalers). Crude as an early signal for the energy cycle. Gold and BTC as the macro hedge pair.
- Listening Odd Lots (Bloomberg) for the macro / commodities / crypto crossovers. Acquired when there’s a tech business worth unpacking end-to-end — recent episodes on the chip stack are excellent.
Updated every few weeks on the /now page.
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