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Equity research · Semis · AI · Commodities
Reading markets, writing it down.
Independent equity research across the names I track most closely — semis and AI infrastructure (Micron, NVDA, AMD), energy (XOM, CVX), and the commodities + macro layer that drives them. Through-cycle valuation is the lens, built on an audited DCF pipeline I wrote myself. My team out of Cal State Fullerton won the 2023 CFA Institute Research Challenge for the Americas. The writing, calculators, and demo workbooks are free; the full IB-grade workbooks and Python pipelines are paid. Everything is published with the same audit standards.
Just published
All writing →Just published · October 3, 2026 · Coverage initiation
Vistra: The Street Has the Earnings. It Doesn’t Have the Rate.
Initiating Vistra at HOLD with a $140 price target. The business is hedged through 2027, the nuclear contracts are real, and we agree with consensus on the next two years of earnings. The disagreement is the discount rate: with the 10-year at 5.26%, the Street’s $218 average target needs about a 6.5% WACC, and even on consensus EBITDA our DCF reaches $161. Four valuation lenses, the 2028 hedge gap, the levels we would act on — plus the full 18-page report and model, free.
Read the initiation →
Just shipped
Full toolkit →Just shipped · June 2026 · Valuation
The through-cycle valuation suite
Five browser calculators that run the whole arc — value, target, size. Reverse DCF (the FCF growth the market's already pricing in), EPV (the no-growth floor), Through-Cycle PT (normalized EPS × recovery multiple, probability-weighted), Accretion / Dilution (first-year deal EPS), and Position Sizing (Kelly, half by default). All free, browser-only, and shareable by URL.
Open the calculator →
What I'm watching
All picks →Live prices and news via TradingView. Targets and theses are mine — not investment advice. Disclaimer.
World markets
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Featured
All writing →Published · May 2026 · Memory / semis
MU — Through-cycle long
The first full pitch is live: HBM contribution to the next cycle peak, mid-cycle EBIT margin normalisation, what today's price implicitly requires via reverse-DCF, and the bear-case kill shot.
Read the pitch →
Tools & templates
All tools →DCF Calculator
Plug in revenue, margin, WACC, terminal growth. Watch the implied share price move live, see a sensitivity grid.
Open →
Trading Comps Workbook
19-tab IB-grade workbook + Python pipeline. Rebuilds for any ticker in 30 seconds. Cyclical adjustments built in. Demo free.
Open →
Reverse-LBO Calculator
Solve the LBO backward. Target IRR → max entry multiple → implied take-private price. Worked MU and WDC examples ship as one-click presets.
Open →
LBO & M&A Template
17-tab workbook with cycle diagnostic, returns attribution, reverse-LBO. Two MU worked examples (through-cycle + AI-cycle).
Open →
Selected work
All projects →-
Buy-side suite
Reverse-LBO + buy-side suite
Reverse-LBO, returns waterfall, distribution waterfall, cap table & waterfall, QofE quick-check — all browser-only. Plus the 8-tab Reverse-LBO Template (free, pipeline on request) and a 30-deal hand-curated take-private precedents database.
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Worked example
MU — Reverse-LBO worked example
The Micron name read through a sponsor's lens. Through-cycle vs AI-cycle scorecards disagree by ~$35 of implied take-private price. The spread between them is the structural call.
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Take-private case
WDC — Post-spin take-private case
Reverse-LBO at 22% sponsor IRR on Western Digital after the SanDisk spin. Math works at modest premium; the friction list is what would actually kill the deal.
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Template
IB-grade LBO & M&A Template
17-tab workbook shipped as two worked Micron scorecards (through-cycle + AI-cycle) so methodology disagreement is explicit. Returns attribution, reverse-LBO, covenant tracking, accretion/dilution.
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Template
IB-grade DCF Template
20-tab Excel workbook with a worked Micron example: two-stage FCFF DCF, peer-blended multiples, three scenarios, reverse-DCF decomposition.
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Workbook
IB-grade Trading Comps Workbook
19-tab workbook with a Python pipeline that rebuilds for any ticker in 30 seconds. Football Field, Mini-DCF, WACC, Cyclical Adjustments. Demo free; Standard $79; Pro $249.
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Pitch
MU — Through-cycle long
Through-cycle thesis on Micron Technology against a cyclical comp. Workbook finalised; write-up in progress.
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Cross-section
Integrated oil — capital-allocation tier list
XOM, CVX, COP, SHEL, BP ranked on through-cycle capital allocation discipline against the commodity strip.
On deck
All writing →Currently reading & watching
- Reading Chip War by Chris Miller — the cleanest narrative of how the semiconductor stack became the most strategically valuable industry on the planet. Mandatory background reading for anyone valuing NVDA, AMD, or Micron.
- Watching The 10Y yield. HBM ASP commentary in the next round of memory prints. Capex guides from the AI buildout (NVDA, AVGO, the hyperscalers). Crude as an early signal for the energy cycle. Gold and BTC as the macro hedge pair.
- Listening Odd Lots (Bloomberg) for the macro / commodities / crypto crossovers. Acquired when there’s a tech business worth unpacking end-to-end — recent episodes on the chip stack are excellent.
Updated every few weeks on the /now page. The full reading list — foundations, sectoral, capital allocation & sponsor capital — lives there.
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