Updated 2026-05-07
Heads-down on Micron. Initiation went live this week on the Reports page and the long-form through-cycle write-up followed. Rating is Hold, base-case PT $625 (peak FY27E GM 65%, roughly six points above the FY18 cycle peak). The structural-HBM bull case to $1,000+ is real but conditional — it requires the 5-year LTAs to be durable, the oligopoly to persist, and AI capex to not digest. I’m not willing to underwrite all three at base.
Interviewing for equity research seats through May at a handful of bulge-bracket and boutique shops. Reading Chip War (Chris Miller) on the side, plus re-reading every MU 10-K back to FY22 and SK hynix's most recent earnings deck. Open to conversations — if a name from your watchlist shows up on mine, I'd love to compare notes.
Posting cadence right now: when there's something worth saying — short notes when names move, long-form pitches on the Reports page when they're done. Subscribe on Substack or check the writing page.