Track record
A research brand is worth exactly what its calibration is — and calibration you can’t check is just marketing. So here is the ledger: public calls, the wins and the misses, each linked to the note that made it and the grade it earned. Where I was wrong, the note said so first, and this page keeps the receipt.
Correction, September 29, 2026. This page used to list the author’s open positions, “marked to the live tape.” The marks had not changed since July 11, and the Micron position it showed as open was closed on July 30, apart from an older lot that remained (see the correction on the July 30 note). We have removed that section. Single-name calls will return here as a scorecard of published ratings, with a written method and dated prices.
The macro calls, scored in my own words — including the ones that died.
Killed by my own rule, the same afternoon: “We were wrong… we own it.” The lesson I took from it — a new chair’s first meeting is structurally hawkish, and you do not fade a risk that’s cleanly aligned with the actor’s incentives — is the one the July 8 minutes went on to confirm. A wrong call that paid for itself in a framework.
Three calls from the prior week, scored in print the week after, in my own words. The jobs base case — half credit: “the hike moved out as we said, but +57K is not a middle number, it’s a soft one.” “Suppliers reprice last” — the miss, owned in full: “on price, the split trade lost money in week one; that’s the grade, and there’s no dressing it up.” And the “calmer long end” — leaking, not yet broken: “the week traded Schwab’s scenario, not ours, and we say so.”
Every call ships with a pre-committed falsifier — the specific number that, if it prints, means I’m wrong. When it prints, the note says so before it says anything else. Targets get walked in public with the reason attached; misses get their own paragraph, not a footnote.
Each call links to the note that made it. Nothing here is investment advice — see the disclaimer.